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Damn the incumbents, and full speed ahead

The American people should be outraged at getting a second-rate solution for something as critical as its network infrastructure. It goes against what average consumers demand in almost every other product and service arena.

Speed is the common measurement that cuts across many products and services as the general metric for assessing whether or not a product is good, bad, or world class.

Speed is good

To paraphrase Gordon Gekko's “Greed is Good” from the movie Wallstreet, “Speed is Good.” People want speed in everyday processes and should be demanding efficiency, not bureaucracy, in the regulation of the network.

Who wants a slower car? Who wants to spend more time on a commuter train going to and from work? Who wants to wait in a grocery check-out lane or in this season's favorite - the post office? Who wants to wait 10 to 15 seconds for download of a file if they can get it instantaneously?
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And what about things you cannot have today? What about downloading a first-run movie in 10 seconds to watch on its opening day? Too slow? Make that less than a second.

What do most people do that want to go to a faraway vacation destination? Do they take a train, a plane that has two intermediate stops, or a non-stop plane?

People take the fastest route. They want to get to their destination as fast as possible. Most people would not want to spend time waiting or traveling at a slower rate. The same should hold true for their network infrastructure.

Go on any trading floor and tell the traders that their line will be 250 milliseconds slower than the person next to them and see if you walk away alive. Those same traders want to hear that you are installing a faster network connection for them, and that they will be 250 milliseconds faster than anyone else on the floor.

Technology should take the “wait” out of everything. That's what people want in everyday life. There are many reasons that we could list, but all you have to do is look around to see what people are doing and what they are gravitating to.

Going against the networks' universal truths

A long time ago, I came up with the four universal truths of networks for viable organizations. This was long before DSL, triple play, and Wi-Fi. Some things are always true and are accepted as the basic framework for any type of viable network:

• Networks never get slower. (When was the last time you heard someone saying we are downgrading your connectivity? We are switching out DSL for 9600bps modems?)

• Networks never get smaller. (You are always adding on to networks - by adding users through acquisitions, new applications, etc.)

• Networks never stay the same. (Organizations are always adding on or changing network configurations due to acquisitions, mergers, downsizing, and other organizational fluctuations - not to mention upgrades and equipment switch outs.)

• Networks never work all of the time. (All networks can fail. You may have 99.999 percent uptime, even 99.9995 percent or even 99.9999 percent, but no one has 100 percent. NO ONE.)

These universal laws of networks are still relevant and yet we have many people that are clueless to these laws.

Once you understand them, you realize that you are going to have to spend some money to have the best network infrastructure. You are also not going to tolerate anything that is inferior to someone else's network.

Second best is not acceptable, nor should it be sold in the United States as “the next generation of network solutions.” Americans want the best. Trying to sell us something else doesn't work.

Eventually, those companies are found out and paid back by consumers voting with their pocket books. Need an example? Ford, GM, and Toyota. Check the stock prices. What do you drive?

If there was real competition within the network infrastructure area, we would be using the Toyota fiber network or some other quality network that data, video, and voice would being screaming down on gigabit speeds.

Why are we accepting second best?

Today, we should be looking at rolling out fiber to the premise (FTTP) or a wireless equivalent that can provide gigabit capability. Anything in the planning stages at this point should be looking at gigabit if not multi-gigabit speeds.

California has had a broadband initiative that says “One Gigabit or Bust by 2010.” Everyone is supposed to have one gigabit (one billion bits) access by 2010, which is very good objective. Hopefully, they will attain that in the designated timeframe.

Just like “Best Practices” are a moving target, goals for bandwidth speeds also are a moving target that has to be carefully understood.

What target speed should be the national goal? Is California's one gigabit the speed goal? This decision is critical because it would put some pressure on the traditional phone company, now referred to as AT&T, to get its act together. Its current solution, Project Lightspeed or U-verse, falls dismally short of putting America back on top. The top speed offered is 6 Mbps (million bits per second) and the future speeds are touted at 25 to 30 Mbps. There are intelligent industrial campuses that are looking at implementing 40 Gbps speeds today. Project Lightspeed looks more like Project Speed Lite.

No strategic direction

With other countries looking at gigabit speeds and universal coverage, our traditional phone companies have tried to put the bureaucratic brakes on innovation as well as global competition in order to milk another couple of years of profits on copper-based infrastructure that should all be replaced today.

What was cutting edge in American network infrastructure is now cutting corners to squeeze another couple of years of profits instead of making the investment to leapfrog everyone. Sorry, but you haven't sold me.

CARLINI-ISM: Don't sell me a painted stagecoach and tell me it's NASCAR.

Copyright 2006 - James Carlini

Recent articles by James Carlini

James Carlini: Handicapping Milwaukee's wireless initiative

James Carlini: Locations must have connectivity to be viable

James Carlini: Rote education fails the Information Age

James Carlini: Business Worst Practices: A new best seller?

James Carlini: Obstructionists block network routing diversity

James Carlini is an adjunct professor at Northwestern University, and is president of Carlini & Associates. Carlini can be reached at james.carlini@sbcglobal.net or 773-370-1888. Check out his blog at http://www.carliniscomments.com.

The opinions expressed herein or statements made in the above column are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Wisconsin Technology Network, LLC. WTN, LLC accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Check out James Carlini's blog at www.carliniscomments.com.

Comments

Albert Chiozzi responded 3 years ago: #1

First of all I agree that we need to make the jump to truly high-speed offerings instead of jumping

Albert Chiozzi responded 3 years ago: #2

I'm not sure that there will be a wireless ofering that meets those speeds detailed in our lifetime. I agree that minor jumps in speed (ie: from 802.11b to "g" to "n") won't cut it, and I don't believe that the FCC or IEEE will be allies in this area. Fiber, however, has been capable of such speeds for years. I believe what's lacking is the "just do it" mentality that would allow for a full-scale fiber build-out. We keep waiting for the next technology, but I think that it's time to pilot an FTTH or FTTP system in a manner that allows for the fiber producers and other interested ($$$) parties to quantify the financial benefits.

I'm not talking about a national infrastructure, that's probably a pipe dream. I'm talking about calling Corning and asking for enough free fiber to cable a commercial development in Madison, Wis. or even the UW Campus. I was involved the last time UW did deploy a broadband system and I believe they would welcome the opportunity (I could be wrong there). I agree that it will take business visionaries (the technologist have already done their job) to make this happen, but I think there are still some of those out there.

Thanks for listening,
Albert Chiozzi
Broadband Infrastructures, LLC

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #3

Albert, thank you for your feedback.

People that can apply technology to business are not being brought in by many of these companies.

Instead, they tend to wallow in their indecisiveness while their competitors are eating away at their marketshare.

I know several peers that are not being utilized in this country while hundreds of companies either do nothing, try to do something on the cheap that does not work, or figure they will wait until next year (they have been saying that since 2001 in the Midwest).

chris responded 3 years ago: #4

Carlini,

Maybe you should learn the difference between speed and latency. The differences between copper latency and fiber latency is small at best(2/3 speed of light(copper) vs 3/4 speed of light(fiber). Even on a long copper dsl loop, I don't think the difference could be measured in milliseconds.

Also, there is a large difference between a 40 gig backbone to a network and what is actually provided to the end user(100 meg ethernet, bgon/gpon or xdsl).

Hollowpoint responded 3 years ago: #5

Fine Mr. Carlini,

You convince investors that there will be enough demand for gigabit FTTH, raise capital and lay fiber to every house in the country. Good luck- especially in rural areas where it will take decades to recoup deployment costs.

Or you could look at Verizon's example- 20 billion for it's FTTH project, and that's not a buildout to all customers nor is it offering anywhere near the speeds you propose. If it fails, the project could very well sink Verizon. Paying off 20 billion in debt with $50/month customers is far from a sure bet and as such investors are nervous about the project.

Not once in your whine-fest did you address the costs of deployment (aside from having to "spend some money), or the fact that the vast majority of users currently have little or no use for speeds beyond what is already offered and certainly wouldn't pay significantly more for 100Mbps when they're perfectly content with their 1.5Mbps DSL.

This article reminds me of a 10-year-old suburbanite kid who insists that her parents buy her a pony for Christmas, with no amount of rationalizing by her parents being able to stifle the whining.

Paul McWilliams responded 3 years ago: #6

What we clearly need is less not more government. As it stands today, legislators have essentially hog tied service providers and now want to complain about them not racing to provide real broadband. I tend to doubt anyone who is informed about the costs imposed by regulations (both local and federal) would argue with this perspective.

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #7

CHRIS & HOLLOWPOINT:

It's great to see the pseudo-experts come out of the woodwork. Why don't you read www.teletruth.com articles about how billions were already collected and supposedly earmarked to build a (real) broadband network.

And 40Gbps backbones? Hollowpoint's observation that "the vast majority of users currently have little or no use for speeds beyond what is already offered" sounds like people in the US Patent Office in 1912 saying that they won't be needed because everything that has been invented. What a lame and shortsighted perspective you have. You should rename yourself to Status Quo. (Hopefully you know what that means)

And Chris, what about 40Gbps end-users? Not a lot today, but the demands are going up all the time. And there ARE some out there already.

As for copper vs. fiber latency - where did you come up with that? I never mentioned what medium would deliver a faster response. You need a simple course in reading comprehension.

Face it, you guys are behind in your thinking and still are looking at buggywhips instead of automobiles.

Some good - and practical - examples of why more bandwidth is so critical. This goes back over 10 years ago when planning a SONET network for the Chicago Police Department. Fingerprints take up about 5 - 10 Megabytes per set. Multiply that by 250,000 sets of prints. To download that to another location, you need a lot more than DSL.

At one time - several years ago - a consortium was going to fiber in Anaheim, CA and ALL of its 300,000+ subscribers. The phone company came in and aggressively fought it and at the time the project looked like a cost of $600-$800 per subscriber. Some people pay that much for their cable TV bill in one year.

So many applications have been cancelled or postponed because people did not have the necessary bandwidth - that has ALWAYS been the bottleneck.

What if there is so much bandwidth that it becomes a non-issue? Then what can you implement? Think out-of-the-box.

What you should be crying about is legislation that is passed to protect the incumbents. Better read up on all that before you make your comments.

chris responded 3 years ago: #8

Carlini,

The only pseudo-expert here is yourself and I feel for anyone that is paying for your consulting services. You don't know technology and you dont know the economics of technology.

You mentioned 250ms advantage in attempt to imply that fiber is more responsive. It is, but not substantially. Since you are a prof, go borrow any book on networking theory (it is obvious you don't own one yourself). In it, you will find latency of fiber is 3/4 speed of light and latency of copper is 2/3 the speed of light. There is no way you will be a 250ms latency advantage with fiber over copper.

There is not only no need for 40gig to home right now, but no one is willing to pay what it would cost to get it there. No killer app exists that requires that right now.

Your right [that] a fingerprint DB might not be well suited by dsl, but it is not an app that resides in any home, either.

For the time being, copper technology is going to improve along with fiber. Copper loops will get shorter and faster. The consumer will benefit in extending the life of copper.

And tele-truth is more like tele-half truths...

Sage responded 3 years ago: #9

To Hollowpoint:

Your opinion represents why America isn't anywhere near the Top 10 in terms of broadband speed, never mind #1. As a country, we used to strive to be the best, now we're content being "okay" and we criticize any and everyone who pushes us to do more. That isn't just pathetic, its nonsensical.

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #10

Chris,

Based on your comments, you have never worked in any mission critical environment. And get a clue, I NEVER mentioned the 250ms advantage was based on using fiber - it could be based on using a faster server maybe even still on copper.

The ARGUMENT is that any speed advantage is going to be wanted by those wanting an edge. Get off the textbook formula comparisons and get some common sense.

It is clearly evident you never came close to working in a real-time stock exchange environment where a quarter second can mean huge profits or losses.

Here is one for you - if you have a 10Gbps line into your house, you can download a 90-minute video (about one Gigabyte in storage) in less than a second to your DVD. Think of the possibilities just for video. Blockbuster becomes an online service - no bricks and mortar needed any more. Studios can download movies to you the day they open. USE YOUR MIND - think of the NEW applications that can be done when you have 10Gbps connectivity.

I'll dismiss your personal attacks as just your inability to articulate your lame arguments.

Jason responded 3 years ago: #11

You don't have a clue. Just because something is better doesn't mean it's practical. A super computer is the best. Will it make my Microsoft Office run better? German engineering is superior. So does that mean my Honda won't get me to and from work daily? I could go on and on. There are advanced technolgies coming out soon that will provide amazing speeds over copper. The hold up on speed upgrades is the price for bandwidth utilization - the price it costs your provider for you using bandwidth through their network and network partners (Level 3, AT&T and others). No net neutrality and these fees that providers pay could go up. As these prices come down, so will the speeds go up. Brian Roberts promised 100 Mbps symetical coming soon. That's on coax not FIOS. Verizon can do that now with current FIOS customer, but they won't. The average customer can't afford the price they would have to charge.

chris responded 3 years ago: #12

Carlini,
You used the example of latency to imply that fiber has lower latency, you did not say but you did imply it. A well managed network, whether it be copper or fiber, should not have 250MS latency. But the key term here is well managed, not copper or fiber.
A stockbroker may have no problem paying to get fiber pulled to their office or home to get this slight performance increase, but the typical person has little need for the slight decrease in latency that fiber would offer.

I think it would be great to download a movie in one second over a 10 gig line. But it is still going to take several minutes to write it to disk, another 15 minutes to burn it to a DVD (this step can be skipped if you have a smart set top box), and it will still take 90 minutes to watch. So several major bottlenecks exist that make the 10GB connection much less practical given the cost to implement such a thing.

So it appears I am not the one having problems using my mind.

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #13

CHRIS

You are still reading too much into what I wrote. I did NOT say or imply anything about latency. The issue is that if as little as a quarter second is shaved off, it gives the trader a real competitive advantage. SPEED in execution.

Forget the transmission media. Speed in execution is what the example was for. Taking a plane vs. a train - where is the fiber/ copper latency in that?

Your conclusion about the supporting devices are accurate - you need another generation of DVDs. etc. to accomodate the speeds which are coming.

And Jason, forget Megabit speeds - everything is moving (VERY quickly) to gigabit speeds and they have tested terabit speeds in the Labs on fiber - not copper). In 1981 - 9600bps was considered high speed for corporate networks and one modem cost over $7,000. Where are we today? The next 25 years, network speeds will accelerate even faster. California has a broadband initiative that says One Gigabit or Bust by 2010. What does Wisconsin have? I don't know.

Look at your PCs. I remember when 20Megabyte hard drive was considered more than adequate. Then one
Gigabyte was considered huge and today people are not looking at less than 100 Gigabyte hard drives for their laptops.

Chris responded 3 years ago: #14

Carlini

If I read too much into it, it is only because you have been very downbeat no copper technology. It has come a long way and it is not dead yet. That is something you continue to fail to recognize.

You point to Jason proves this, not long ago 9600bps was high speed, But today VDSL is capable of 100 meg. There is a research paper that has dsl being able to get up to 500meg on 1000foot cooper loops. Who would have thought in 1980 that 10 gig ethernet would possible on copper, yet it is. Copper and fiber have their place and they are both continue to improve with time.

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #15

CHRIS,

For all new installations, I have been recommending fiber or at least a fiber backbone in buildings for well over a decade. Gigabit is much easier than fiber.

When you start to get that fast on copper, you are susceptible to many types of noise and interference.
(In a lab, I am sure they are testing under optimal conditions with no RMI and EFI)

There are many papers on that as well. As you mention, the distances go down dramatically and you might as well run with fiber because whatever you can squeeze out of copper you can get 100-fold more out of fiber.

The breakthough of a Gigabit on copper is well overshadowed by being able to get multi terabit speeds on fiber.

Thanks for clarifying.

Albert Chiozzi responded 3 years ago: #16

James,

I don't want to feed into this argument too much, but I do want to say that the negativity expressed in the comments to this article is a major part of the problem. We are too busy taking every opportunity to state how much we know about incidental technical data, to focus on the actual deployment of the technology. We seem to be waiting for everything to be just right. The engineers AND businessmen have to realize that "good is good enough." We are too afraid of looking bad by deploying technology that may be surpassed in coming years.

I'm a Red Sox fan, and we had an outfielder years ago (Ken Harrelson) who won a Gold Glove. When asked how that was possible (he wasn't very good in the field), he said that he was too slow to get to the ball and frankly didn't try all that hard. He mentioned that one of his teammates was constantly diving for balls and getting errors when his speed and effort made it look like he should have caught balls that Ken would not have been able to get close to. In matters of broadband, we seem to have adopted this lack of initiative while, as a result, our children's education is technically incomplete.

James Carlini responded 3 years ago: #17

Here is the latest. Some business parks are looking at 1Gbps to offer tenants. There are some offering 10 to 40Gbps. The trend is that you have to have connectivity if you want to compete globally.

Industrial parks should be looking at a minimum of 10-100Mbps for tenants, although if you are building one right now, you might as well focus on 1Gbps.

Connectivity for high-tech parks should include NLR, Starlight, and multiple carriers. NLR? National Lambda Rail (Fiber) Connectivity at a high-tech park is 10- 40Gbps - today.

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Dave responded 9 months ago: #19

Don't confuse bandwidth with speed. The velocity of propagation is less on fiber than copper. Copper is faster.

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